So long, farewell, auf weidershen, goodnight.

CONCLUSIONS: HOW HAS THE BLOG CHALLENGED MY PRECONCEPTIONS? 

At the start of this blog I had assumed that the response of glaciers to global warming was relatively conclusive. Numerous occasions of trying to preserve snowmen in the past have demonstrated, alongside the discourse of physics, that if atmospheric and surface temperatures increase than the snow will melt. However, this blog has indicated that this childhood assumption was overly simplistic.

I had assumed that alterations to glacial systems were mainly due changes in precipitation and temperature due to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, over the course of several weeks I uncovered numerous regional forcings such as ABC and surface darkening by black carbon resulting in spatial and temporal variability in the response of glaciers to climate change. Scherler et al., (2011) article on the greater resilience of debris covered glaciers and Hewitt et al., (2005; 2011) research in the Karakoram region in particular underlined the importance of understanding local processes and feedbacks in order to predict glacial changes. Feedbacks at a continuum of scales cause non-linear responses to climate change, complicated by the presence of thresholds causing the reversal of some of these relationships apparent in the winter snow-monsoon interaction (Kripalini, et al., 2003).

This exercise has challenged the way I address articles on environmental change, and has emphasised the importance of reviewing several articles in order to obtain a clearer consensus of change within the glacial system. Each study has notable limitations and assumptions based on the method used to obtain and analyse their results. However by evaluating several studies the weaknesses of each individual method can be reduced. It is clear that substantially more research is required but current patterns suggest that the majority of glaciers in the region are in retreat. Although the IPCC (2007) statement may have been an exaggeration, this blog has shown that overall the claim that glaciers could disappear in the future, even if some time after 2035, is not.

Attempting to reduce anthropogenic climate change may be one of the greatest challenges that humans have to face in the next few decades. However, delaying this process will only increase the likelihood that an ireversible threshold is crossed. While current global temperatures are lower than past interglacials, predictions suggest this could change within the next few decades. Ultimately the future of the earth's systems is in our hands and how we act now will have significant implications for generations to come.