A shift in direction

This blog has outlined some of the major climate-related changes to glaciers in the Himalayas. The IPCC (2001) have estimated that a 1° C rise in temperature has caused alpine glaciers worldwide to decrease by as much as 40% in area, and in some cases over 50% in volume compared to their 1850 estimates. However, as this blog has demonstrated, a glaciers response to climate change is highly individualistic with significant regional variations present within the same mountain chain. This is evident in the observed advances of glaciers in the Karakoram Himalaya whilst other glaciers in adjacent regions have been in a general state of retreat since the 1950s (Space Applications Centre, 2010). Therefore the IPCC (2001) prediction for a 3.5-5.5°C rise in temperature by 2100 for the Indian sub-continent (under the business-as-usual scenario) is likely to cause differential responses depending on the dominance and interaction of feedbacks in each particular region. A recent study by Lal (2002) has also contributed to the widely accepted view that temperature rises may be even greater in high altitude areas, and is an important factor to consider in attempts to model future glacial changes.

This blog has previously focussed on how glaciers within the Himalayas have adjusted to changes in the global and regional climate. However, another important aspect that needs to be considered is the potential socio-economic costs that these changes could have on communities in the valleys and lowlands surrounding the Himalayas. Many studies have highlighted the importance of glacial discharge as a source of freshwater, with rivers sourced from the mountains, such as the Ganges supporting 10% of the population in that region alone (IPCC, 2007). Thus, changes in the distribution and extent of the glaciers are anticipated to have significant impacts on the local communities in both the short- and long term. Moving away from how glaciers in the Himalayas have responded to climate change, this blog will now review some of the socio-economic costs of changes to these ice giants.

Reference:

IPCC (2001) ‘Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis’, in J.T Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Drai, K. Maskell and C.A. Johnson (Eds) Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.

IPCC (2007) ‘Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’, in M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (Eds) Contributions of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.

Lal, M. (2002) Possible Impacts of Global Climate Change on Water Availability in India, Report to Global Environment and Energy in the 21st Century, Indian Institute of Technology: New Delhi.

Space Applications Centre (2010) Final Technical Report- Snow and Glacier Studies, Ministry of Environment and Forests Department of Space of India: India.