The cream turned sour: Canada has withdrawn from the Kyoto Protocol.

Figure: The Canadian Environmental minister Peter Kent announces that Canada is to withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol

Following on from my post yesterday that the UN should be cautious before hailing the Durban conference a success, today Canada has withdrawn from the legal treaty to cut global greenhouse emissions. Therefore, just because a legally binding deal has been made, it does not prevent countries from abandoning these commitments (The Guardian, 2011).

Under article 27 of the Kyoto Protocol, a country is allowed to withdraw from the protocol after it has been in force for three years. The current protocol came into force on the 1st of January 2008 meaning that Canada is entitled to withdraw if it wanted to, which it has. Although heavily criticised as by environmental organisations and most interestingly China (who were one of the main countries opposing all countries to be legally-bound to reduce emissions under the new protocol) who have stated Canada's decision to leave the protocol as 'irresponsible' (The Guardian, 2011).

So why did they leave? The answer, put simply is money. With a target of reducing emissions to 6% below 1990s levels, Canada's current emissions have increased by a third of their estimated 1990 value. Thus, in order to meet their target, Canada would have needed to spend approximately £8.7 billion (equivalent to $1,600 in taxes for every Canadian family), on buying carbon permission permits (AAUs) from other countries that are emitting less greenhouse gases (GHG) then their quota allows (The Guardian, 2011). Although this would allow Canada to meet their target, a criticism of AAUs is that the country itself has not actually reduced its emissions but has 'bought' the allowance off of another country. However, this is irrelevant as by leaving the protocol Canada do not have to invest in these permits.

Canada claim that their withdrawal from the treaty will have limited impacts on global GHG emissions as they only contribute 2% of the world's emissions (The Guardian, 2011). Environmental minister of Canada Peter Kent, claimed that the target set for Canada was unrealistic and in order to meet their target they would 'need to remove every vehicle of every kind from Canadian roads or close down the entire farming and agricultural sector' (The Guardian, 2011). Peter Kent goes further to argue that because the two largest emitters USA and China are not part of the current protocol and therefore iit cannot work. Behind this claim, is that Canada is the world's third largest producer of oil (which is highly energy and water intensive) and does not want to threaten the prospect of this industry growing in the future. 

 Therefore, as I have previously suggested it all comes down to money and whether the protocol makes economic sense. Although a deal has been done to draw up a second legally binding protocol, if loop-holes such as the right to walk away from the treaty remain then the effectiveness that the new treaty will have to force countries to reduce their emissions will be limited. If countries can simply leave the protocol before they have to pay for their industrial activities then reversing the current increase in GHG emissions seem highly unlikely.

The question now is how other countries will respond to this? Will others follow suit or will Canada mirror the current UK situation in the EU and will be cut out off a protocol that will drive movements towards sustainable development in the future?

                                        
For listen to the press release given by Canada's Environmental Minister Peter Kent click here.

Reference:

The Guardian (2011) 'Canada pulls out of Kyoto Protocol', The Guardian, 13th December 2011.

Vaughan, A. (2011) 'What does Canada's withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol mean for the treaty?', The Guardian, 13th December 2011.

In the news: Durban a Done Deal: But is it a success?



Figure: British Oxfam activist protesting about the COP-17 Conference in Durban.  


Following from my post on the Durban climate summit last week, after the conference was extended over the weekend an agreement has been made to start working towards a a new Protocol which would legally bind both developed and developing countries to reduce their carbon emissions by 2020. This would differ from the current Kyoto Protocol which only legally binds developed nations (that have signed the agreement) to decrease their carbon emissions. This is a significant step forward and shows a political commitment to try and restrict global warming within the 2°C target set by scientists.

 Entitled 'The Durban Platform For Enhanced Action' a two-page document has been published providing guidelines for countries to voluntarily begin to reduce their carbon emissions by 2015 although legal commitments will not come into place until 2020 (UNFCCC, 2011) . In this interim, developed nations have also agreed to continue to be legally bond to reduce their emissions with the first Kyoto Protocol expiring in 2013. However, although this is being hailed a success by the UN and some other countries, critics have argued that the paper has simply glossed over the disputes between developed and developing (particularly China and India) and significant negotiations are still needed before a protocol will be produced (The Guardian, 2011). Further criticism arises from small island states and environmental NGOs which argue that global carbon emissions may have peaked by 2020, and that a legal agreement needs to be brought into force sooner than the proposed 2020 date (The Telegraph, 2011).

However, how realistic is it to expect countries to produce a treaty by 2015 let alone, bring the date forward as the smaller island nations suggest? The UN economic summit in Brussels is an obvious example. Countries self-interests are still at the forefront of international debates about our global future, in the economy and also in the environment. Although, the nations have all signed onto reducing their emissions, the next talk in Qatar will highlight the true commitment that developing nations have to enter into a legally binding agreement when targets are drawn up for each nation (The Telegraph, 2011).

Therefore, although the UN may feel like the 'cat that's got the cream' I suggest that they should delay their celebrating as that cream may just well turn out to be sour.
                                                

To read the two-page agreement for yourself, click here. The Guardian has also released a three-minute video which includes the opinions of this new agreement by some of the delegates at the conference.

Reference:
Gray, L (2011) 'Durban climate change: the agreement explained', The Telegraph, 11th December 2011.

Harvey, F. and D. Carrington (2011) 'Durban climate conference agrees to do a deal- now goes the hard part', The Guardian, 12th December 2011.
 

BBC's Frozen Planet: On Thin Ice

From the offset I want to state that the BBC has not (unfortunately) given me any incentive to endorse their series of Frozen Planet narrated by David Attenborough. Focused on the Arctic and Antarctica, this series has mainly being orientated to the biology in these frozen landscapes with the sixth episode dedicated to the Inuit tribes that live on the ice shelves. However, the last episode entitled 'On Thin Ice', was dedicated to the impacts that climate change is having in these polar regions, of which certain aspects were highly relevant to this blog.

It is important to acknowledge that the documentary does not state where it gets its statistics for ice melt rate and increasing air temperatures, or the uncertainties associated with these models. Despite this the use of time-lapse imagery and different case studies mean it expresses historic and future changes in a way that is easy to understand for those who may have a limited knowledge on climate change.

In the episode, David Attenborough states that the thickness of the Arctic icesheet has decreased by around half since 1980 and is now only a couple of metres in places. Attenbourgh then goes on to add that if the current trends continue, in the summer these areas may become open ocean in the next few decades with similar observations occurring in the Antarctic. Containing 75% of the world's freshwater, it is predicted that  Antarctic surface temperatures have increased by 3°C which is ten times the average rate for the rest of the Earth. Although David Attenborough states that the rise in temperature itself is unlikely to cause significant melting of the Antarctic Ice sheet (unlike the Arctic), rising temperatures could cause ice shelves that are containing the icesheet to melt at the iceshelf-ocean interface. If these iceshelves melt then the icesheet will advance to meet the ocean where it could potentially be melted by the warmer ocean surface water below. Surveys have indicated that iceshelves are melting six times faster that historic rates, with seven major ice shelves such as Larsen B in 2002 and more recently the Wilkins iceshelf already breaking up (The Guardian, 7th December, 2011). This 'wave of melting' that David Attenborough refers to is moving south towards the poles as is anticipated to start to affect the ice shelves holding back the Antarctic continental ice sheet in the next few decades.

The most fundamental point that the episode highlights is the impact that the melting will have on the global climate. As I have previously discussed, ice melt will significantly affect the albedo of the surface, and the replacement of ice by the darker open ocean will cause a positive feedback accelerating temperature rise in these polar regions. Attenborough also states that ice on land (including alpine glaciers) are more important than sea-ice as it can significantly alter sea levels. This emphasises the point that I have been trying to convey about the impacts that glaciers can have on not only a local but also a global scale.

Also, unlike animals such as the Adelie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) which can currently migrate further towards the poles, animals such as the snow leopard (Unica unica) in the Himalayas may be under a greater threat to climate change as they are more restricted in the extent that they can migrate to higher altitude locations. This draws attention the biological impacts that climate change may have on the ecosystems in alpine environments and goes beyond the scope of this blog. However, changes to biodiversity and ecosystem functions will likely have impact on local alpine communities as seen in the changing practices of native Inuit tribes in the Arctic.

If you can spare an hour amongst all of the Christmas shopping and present wrapping then I would strongly suggest watching this episode of Frozen Planet. Not shown in the US because of its strong support for climate change, this episode provides an easy introduction into the affect that climate change has had on our polar regions, and as David Attenborough states, 'it is apparent that animals are already adapting to climate change, the question now is can we?'.

To watch the episode go to the BBC website.
For more information, there is also an interactive website produced by the Open University which provides further details about the making of the series and photos from the series.

Reference:
Rees, D (2011) 'Frozen planet: capturing the Wilkins ice shelf in full collapse', The Guardian, 7th December 2011.

In the news this week (Special Edition:Ongoing UN Climate Talks)...



(Source: The Economist, 3rd December 2011)



As this topic has been well covered in the media this week, I thought I would dedicate an entire post to the on-going debates at the UN’s annual climate change conference in Durban. As I type, delegates continue to deliberate our global stance on tackling climate change. The current focus is setting out the details of the Green Climate Fund and the more contested issue of whether a second Kyoto Protocol should be adopted. The latter, as the Guardian illustrated is a highly divided issue, with most developed countries wanting to scrape the initiative whilst developing countries are still mainly behind a new protocol being created (Figure 1) (Coulter, 2011)

Figure 1: Diverging views of public opinion on the threat of climate change between developed and developing nations(Source: The Guardian, 1st December 2011)

The growing gap between the opinion of the public in developed and developing regions was also supported by a survey by the National Geographic of seventeen countries including Britain, Sweden, China and India. This gap has increased since 2007 and may be partly related to the increased awareness of how climate change can impact the environment in developing nations which are currently more significantly affected by extreme weather events.

The current Kyoto Protocol to be blunt has failed to reduce current carbon dioxide emissions which have increased by over a quarter since it came into force in 1997, mainly due to emissions by developing nations (see Figure 2). And this is the issue. The current protocol does not restrict the emissions of developing nations which equate to 58% of the global emissions each year (The Economist, 2011). Thus, the EU suggest that under the new agreement, all countries should commit to reducing their carbon emissions, although the burden on developing countries would be lower than for developed nations.  Some developing nations such as China and India have already agreed improve the carbon efficiency of their industries. However, currently these nations will not turn this into a legally binding agreement as their priority is still economic development rather than reducing global warming.

Figure 2: The contribution of countries to the total carbon dioxide emissions for 2007 (Source: The Economist, 3rd December 2011)

The current outlook from the conference is largely unclear. A new protocol is still possible but it will depend largely on how countries weight the global aim of reducing carbon emissions against their own prioritises of continuing economic growth. With emissions in China per person, now greater than some European countries, their decision in particular will determine whether our target to restrict global warming to 2°C can be achieved (Jacobs, 2011), .

Reference:

The Economist (2011) ‘Climate change talks: wilted greenery’, 3^rd October 2011

Coulter, C. (2011) ‘ Climate change concern highest in the developing world’, The Guardian, 1^st December 2011.

Jacobs, M. (2011) ‘UN talks see delayer countries throw away the 2°C goal’, The Guardian, 1^st December, 2011.

Self titled: Idiots Jump into Dangerous Imja Lake

Following what I have just posted about the risks an outburst can have on communities in the valleys below these lakes, I was disgusted to find this video on Youtube of people trying to cause the next outburst at Imja Lake by jumping into the lake. I could accept it if the people were unaware of what they were doing, but I cannot excuse this as they state in their video that they want to cause a GLOF! Imja lake is one of the four lakes classified in Nepal as being highly likely to have an outburst in next few years. I can understand that it might sound like a good story to tell to you friends down the pub in the evening, but just imagine what would have happened if they had caused an outburst. I was even more horrified to find that this was not a one-off event, but it is a global phenomena. Well call me a spoil sport but in my opinion this activity should be stopped, or at least if they have to continue doing it, jump into lakes that are not at risk of breaching and causing long-term devastation to the communities below.

Silent Tsunamis

Any environmental feature or process that adversely affects humans and their activities can be regarded as a hazard (Richardson and Reynolds, 2000). Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are one of these features, releasing up to 30,000m³s^-1 of water into the valley below having substantial social and economic impacts on the communities in the affected area. Although GLOF events rarely affect as many communities as many other hazards such as earthquakes, Richardson and Reynolds (2000) state that the damage in down valley areas for the local communities is of equal significance. The formation and growth of glacial lakes is directly related to glacial mass and therefore climate change and will be the focus of this post.

TYPES OF GLOF EVENTS

GLOFs are mainly triggered by two mechanisms: an outburst from a lake dammed by a terminal moraine (moraine-dammed lakes), or ice-dammed lakes, formed when an advancing tributary glacier blocks the river or discharge of a melting glacier in the main valley causing an outburst when it retreats in the summer months. Identifying how the glacial lake has been formed is highly significant, as each lake will respond differently to changes in glacial mass. Glacial retreat may cause a reduction in ice-dammed lakes in a particular region, however, the increased discharge may result in the formation of more moraine-dammed glacial lakes. Therefore acknowledging the contribution of each process to the glacial lakes present in a region is essential in order to assess how the risk from these lakes may alter with climate change in the future.

Figure 1: Lake Imja Tsho, a moriane-dammed lake in Nepal classified as 'hazardous' on risk assessment inventories (Source: Bajrachraraya et al., 2007: 35).

 

DISTRIBUTION AND RISK OF GLOFs

At some point, every country in the Himalayan region has suffered a GLOF event with 25 in Nepal since the 1930s (Hewitt and Liu, 2010). Qingha (1991) study of 17 GLOF events in the Karakoram Mountains noted that all of the events occurred between June to November coinciding with the monsoon and greatest snowmelt rates. A study by Kattelman (2003) also supports this, with all of the recorded GLOF events in Nepal occurring in July and August. As noted in a previous post, the strength and extent of the Asian monsoon has decreased in some regions of the Himalaya since the 1920s. Following the notion that precipitation contributes to the volume of water in glacial lakes, it could be hypothesised that the risk from GLOFs could decrease, supported by a decline in the number of erosion glacial lakes identified by the ICIMOD between 1960 and 2001 (Bajrachrarya et al., (2007). However, contrary to this, the majority of studies indicate a rise in the overall number of hazardous glacial lakes since the 1950s (Qingha, 1991).

Bajrachrarya et al., (2007) summarise a baseline study conducted by the ICIMOD of over 9,000 glacial lakes in the Himalayas between 1960 and 2001. Studying topographic maps of the region, the ICIMOD monitored the formation and development of glacial lakes that were larger than 0.003km² (the smallest resolution lakes could be identified using the maps available). Major glacial lakes were stated as any lake larger than 0.02 km² which contain at least 6 x 10⁵m³ of water. Focusing on the Dudh Koshi sub-basin in Nepal and the Pho Chu sub-basin in Bhutan, the study noted that 37% and 32% of the glacial lakes identified in 1960 had disappeared respectively (Bajrachrarya et al., 2007). Most of these were either minor supraglacial ponds that had merged to form a single lake, or lakes that were not glacier-fed. However, although the number of lakes had decreased, the overall area of the remaining lake, the majority of which were moraine-dammed, had grown by 21% in Nepal and 8% in Bhutan (Bajrachrarya et al., 2007). In moraine-dammed lakes, as the volume of water grows the hydrostatic pressure acting on the moraine increases and overtopping becomes more frequent. Therefore, as the area increases, the potential of an outburst event also grows (Richardson and Reynolds, 2000).

Table 1: Summary of the types of glacial lakes studies by the ICIMOD in the Dudh Koshi sub-basin between 1960-2001) (Bajrachrarya et al., 2007: 24)

Compared to Nepal where most of the glacial lakes are moraine-dammed, ice-dammed lakes contribute to a substantial proportion of the GLOF events in the Karakoram region (Quingha, 1991; Hewitt and Liu, 2011). Contrasting to other regions of the Himalayas, some of the glaciers in the Karakoram mountain range have been advancing since the 1950s. However, although hazards from moraine-dammed glacial lakes may be lower than in other regions, over 90 outbursts have occurred due to the formation of lakes impounded behind advancing and surging glaciers (Hewitt and Liu, 2011). Of these, 10 have occurred in the Yarkland basin which supports 1.8 million people, 38 million hectares of irrigated land and six hydropower stations (Hewitt and Liu, 2011). Direct costs from an outburst in 1999 were estimated at US$ 25 million, affecting over 18,700 hectares of agricultural land and the risks and potential damage will continue to increase as the Kashgar District, imitating many other populated valleys in the Himalayas, continues to be developed (Hewitt and Liu, 2011).

Hewitt and Liu (2011) state that the future risk of ice-dammed outbursts in the Karakoram region is unclear. Whilst some glaciers have been slowly retreating or have remained static, an increasing number, mainly in the highest part of the range have been advancing, including at least nine glaciers that have been recorded with ice-dammed lakes in the past. Therefore, the study predicted that the overall risk from GLOF events for communities in the Karakoram region, like most of the other regions in the Himalaya is likely to increase with climate change

IMPACT OF GLOFs ON DOWN STREAM COMMUNITIES.

An increase in the frequency of GLOF events will have catastrophic social and economic impacts for the communities occupying the Himalayan valleys. In addition to the loss of hydropower stations such as the Dig Tsho GLOF event in 1985, outbursts can have substantial impacts on the agricultural economy that support most of the populations in these regions (Bajracharya et al., 2007). For example, a historic outburst event in the Nepal in ca. 1555 inundated 450km² of the Porkhara basin with up to 50-60m of debris completely covering the valley below (Richardson and Reynolds, 2000). A more recent outburst from the Langmonde Glacier in Khumbu, Nepal in 1985 deposited almost 900,000m³ of eroded moraine material over the first two kilometres below the lake (Kattleman, 2003). The removal of debris following an outburst is labour-intensive as access, particularly in the areas directly below the outburst prevents machinery being brought in the aid the operation. Alternative food sources may also be affected, such as fish populations which took approximately 10 years to recover following the Lugge Tsho outburst in the East Pho Chu Valley, China in 1994 (Watanbe and Rothacher, 1996). Therefore, ignoring the direct impacts on lives and property, the long-term impacts for communities can be highly significant and as more people and industries locate to these areas, the need for effective mitigation techniques is of growing relevance.

MITIGATION METHODS

Due to the isolation of many of these glacial lakes, attempts to mitigate against outbursts are highly problematic. With over 9,000 glacial lakes in the Himalayas and the limited resources available, inventories using remote sensing have been conducted to identify which lakes pose the most imminent threat to breach and mitigation has been focused on reducing the risk in these areas (Richardson and Reynolds, 2000). An inventory in Nepal classified four glacial lakes as ‘dangerous’ based on the lake size, estimated dam stability and the presence of communities downstream (Kattelmann, 2003). These included Tsho Rolpa, Imja, Thuglagi and Lower Banin and mitigation methods have been implemented in Tsho Rolpa to reduce risk of a future outburst. Adopting successful techniques used in the Peruvian Andes, a trial siphon (triple-inlet pipe) was installed in 1995, with the capacity of transporting 170 litres of water per second from the lake to an outlet below the moraine (Richardson and Reynolds, 2000). Although it was largely successful, snow loads in the winter caused the pipe to break up. Thus, in 2000 an artificial spillway, costing US$2.7 million, including US$1.1 million in transport costs, was installed lowering the lake level by three metres (Kattelmann, 2003). However, a recent report by UNESCO indicates that that the spillway has had no significant effect on reducing the risk of an outburst as increased snow melt have increased the discharge entering the dam (Figure 1) (Chalise et al., 2006). This suggests that further research needs to be undertaken to assess the success of these methods against changes in the dynamics of the lake itself as it is apparent that a practice that may be successful under current conditions may not be as effective under pressures of increased snow melt.

Figure 1: Discharge at Tsho Rolpa, Nepal following the installation of an artificial spillway in 2000 (Source: Chalise et al., 2007).

CONCLUSIONS
The impacts of GLOF on local communities in the Himalayan regions can be substantial, causing loss of property, agricultural land and energy sources. However, provided that glacial lakes are routinely monitored, and mitigation methods are put in place at hazardous lakes, Kattelman (2003) argues that it is technically feasible to reduce the possibility of outbursts in these regions. However, as glacial lakes continue to grow, attempting to identify and prioritise which lakes pose the most imminent threat will become increasingly difficult. This is encapsulated by the four hazardous lakes in Nepal, which have all formed within the last 30-45 years, and have grown by an average 33-71m yr^-1 (Richardson and Reynolds, 2000). Although the costs of these mitigation methods may be significant in the short-term balanced against the potential long-term impacts due to an outburst it is apparent that more investment needs to be spent protecting these remote communities from GLOFs. With rapid development occurring in these areas, the need to reduce the risk of outbursts in these areas is growing in importance, and will only increase as the number of hazards, whether moraine-dammed or ice-dammed, continues to increase with climate change. 

Reference:

Bajrachrarya, S. R., P. K. Mool and B.R. Shrestha (2007) ‘Impact of Climate Change on Himalayan Glaciers and Glacial Lakes: Case Studies of GLOF and Associated Hazards in Nepal and Bhutan, ICIMOD: Kathmandu.

Chalise, S.R., M. L. Shrestha, O. M. Bajrachrarya and B.R. Shrestha (2006) 'Climate Change Impacts on Glacial Lakes and Glacerised Basins in Nepal and Consequences for Water Resources, UNESCO: Nepal.

Hewitt, K. and J. Liu (2011) ‘Ice-dammed lakes and outburst floods, Karakoram Himalaya: historical perspectives on emerging threats’, Physical Geography, 31,6: 528-551.

Kattelmann, R. (2003) ‘Glacial lake outburst floods in the Nepal Himalaya: a manageable hazard?’, Natural Hazards, 28: 145-154.

Qingha, F. (1991) ‘Characteristic of glacial outburst flood in the Yarkant River, Karakoram Mountains’, GeoJournal, 25,2: 255-263.

Richardson, S.D. and J.M. Reynolds (2000) ‘An overview of glacial hazards in the Himalayas’, Quaternary International, 65: 31-47.

Shrestha, A. B. and R. Aryal (2011) ‘Climate change in Nepal and its impacts on Himalayan glaciers’, Regional Environmental Change: Natural and Social Aspects, 11, S1: 565-577.

Watanbe, T., and D. Rothacher (1996) ‘ The 1994 Lugge Tsho glacial lake outburst flood, Bhutan, Himalaya’, Mountain Research and Development, 16,1: 77-81.