CLIMATE SUMMIT FOR A LIVING HIMALAYAS
Following on from my news post on the the 12th November, the 'Climate Summit for a Living Himalaya' concluded on the 19th of November and was claimed to have been highly 'successful' with the publication of a 'Framework of Cooperation' which the four countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal) will incorporate into their economic and social structure to increase resilience against climate change. However, after reading the framework, it seems that all of the activities that have been agreed on are rather ambiguous and do not carry any specific targets or mechanisms to test that they are actually being carried out. For example 'enhancing ecosystem management processes to minimise the impacts of climate change induced disasters' (Climate Change Summit for a Living Himalayas, 2011: 3) Additionally, a substantial proportion of the activities involve knowledge sharing, rather than investing funding into trans-national projects to reduce climate change. Despite its limitations, the summit represents a growing awareness by governments that climate change could have significant impacts of the world's economy and social systems. Even if the activities stated in this framework are small, it is a step in the right direction to alter how we conceptualise and consume the earth's resources.
COP/CMP7: WORKING TOGETHER-SAVING TOMORROW TODAY
Hot off the press, the 17th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) began today in Durban, South Africa. The COP serves as a meeting by the parties that have signed the Kyoto Protocol, but also allows other member states to observe the meeting, but are not allowed to participate in any decisions being made. With another 'climategate' scandal occurring days before the beginning of the conference, many are uncertain how the 17th Conference will pan out.
One of the main points that will be discussed at the conference is whether parties will sign up to a second Kyoto Protocol with the first treaty ending at the end of 2012. Although many EU countries and developing countries support a second protocol (the only legally binding agreement to reduce carbon emissions), some developed countries such as Japan, Russia and Canada have stated that they will not sign on. With the UNEP stating that global carbon emissions need to be reduced by 44GT- well below current levels- if any attempt is to be made to remain below the 2°C target by 2020, the conclusions of the conference will highly significant (Telegraph, 28th November 2011). The impacts of climate change are global, crossing borders and reaching into even the remotest regions. Thus, it will be interesting to follow the discussions in the conference as they develop in the next few weeks?
I would be interested to hear what any of you think on this issue? Do you think that a second protocol is needed or do you think a different approach is required to reduce carbon emissions, and if so, what?
For the latest updates on the conference and to learn more about the main points that will be discussed in the next two weeks visit the UNFCCC website.
Treading on Thin Ice: Climate change and what this could mean for nature's ice giants.
Monday 28 November 2011
All it needs is a lick of paint!?
Whilst looking at some of the glacier-related headlines that have been in the headlines this week, I came across this article by the BBC in 2010 covering the rather unique idea Eduardo Gold had proposed to slow and potentially reverse the effects of glacial melt in alpine environments. Now, I've heard of hydropower and attempts to form clouds but I have Gold (2010) suggests painting a mountainside could be answer we have been searching for! It may sound unusual but there is some scientific logic behind it. White surfaces such as snow and ice have a higher albedo than dark surfaces such as rock and vegetation. As I have discussed in previous posts, as the glaciers have retreated this has reduced the albedo in alpine regions as ice-covered surfaces have been replaced by the darker rock surfaces underneath. Eduardo Gold argues that by painting the rocks white, it can increase the abedo and thus reflect more radiation to counteract global warming.
Gold's current work is based in the Peruvian Andes, near the village of Licapa. Although the success of this 'whitewashing' method is still highly debated it had gained the support of the World Bank who announced it as one of the 26 winners in it's '100 ways to save the Earth competition' in 2009 which had over 1,700 submissions.
Although organisations such as the UK's Royal Society have stressed that this scheme would only have local effects and that countries should still focus on cutting carbon emissions, it gives some hope about our potential to use geo-engineering to help mitigate against climate change. So if you get the urge to paint any rocks or mountains anytime some, I suggest you paint them white.
(To see a video of Eduardo Gold explaining the principles behind white washing, go to the BBC news website)
Gold's current work is based in the Peruvian Andes, near the village of Licapa. Although the success of this 'whitewashing' method is still highly debated it had gained the support of the World Bank who announced it as one of the 26 winners in it's '100 ways to save the Earth competition' in 2009 which had over 1,700 submissions.
Although organisations such as the UK's Royal Society have stressed that this scheme would only have local effects and that countries should still focus on cutting carbon emissions, it gives some hope about our potential to use geo-engineering to help mitigate against climate change. So if you get the urge to paint any rocks or mountains anytime some, I suggest you paint them white.
(To see a video of Eduardo Gold explaining the principles behind white washing, go to the BBC news website)
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Figure 1: Eduardo Gold painting the rocks on Chalon Sombrero (Source BBC News, 17th June 2010) |
Sunday 27 November 2011
Demographic trivia: something for the pub quiz
Before I move onto the impacts that Himalayan glaciers are having on the countries downstream and downvalley of these regions, I thought it was important to provide a context on the countries involved. I have created a little fact-file for some of the countries that are likely to be most affected by changes to the extent of Himalayan glaciers in the future. However, it is worth noting, that complex land-atmosphere dynamics and tele-connections mean that there are likely to be impacts in other regions.
At the bottom of the table, there is a list of some of the current environmental issues affecting these countries which suggests that many of the countries have problems of water pollution and water shortages due to a growing population. Agriculture is an important sector for most of these countries. Although it does not contribute as much to annual GDP as the industrial and services sector, in most countries it supports the highest proportion of the labour force. Thus changes to water resources will undoubtedly affect the socio-economic structure in these regions.
For more 'fun' trivia facts go the 'World Factbook' website.
Table 1: Demographics information and water-related environmental issues for countries surrounding the Himalayas (Source: CIA, 2011)
At the bottom of the table, there is a list of some of the current environmental issues affecting these countries which suggests that many of the countries have problems of water pollution and water shortages due to a growing population. Agriculture is an important sector for most of these countries. Although it does not contribute as much to annual GDP as the industrial and services sector, in most countries it supports the highest proportion of the labour force. Thus changes to water resources will undoubtedly affect the socio-economic structure in these regions.
For more 'fun' trivia facts go the 'World Factbook' website.
Table 1: Demographics information and water-related environmental issues for countries surrounding the Himalayas (Source: CIA, 2011)
Country | Bangladesh | Bhutan | China | India | Pakistan | Nepal |
Total area (sq km) | 143,998 | 38,394 | 9,596,961 | 3,287,263 | 796,095 | 147,181 |
Land use (2005) | Arable land: 55.39% Permanent crops: 3.08% Other: 41.53% | Arable land: 2.3% Permanent crops: 0.43% Other: 97.27% | Arable land: 14.86% Permanent crops: 1.27% Other: 83.87% | Arable land: 48.83% Permanent crops: 2.8% Other: 48.37% | Arable land: 24.44% Permanent crops: 0.84% Other: 74.72% | Arable land: 16.07% Permanent crops: 0.85% Other: 83.08% |
Irrigated land (sq km) (2008) | 50,500 | 400 | 641,410 | 622,860 | 198,700 | 11,680 |
Total renewable water resources (cu km) | 1,210.6 (1999) | 95 (1987) | 2,829.6 (1999) | 1,907.8 (1999) | 233.8 (2003) | 210.2 (1999) |
total: 79.4 cu km/yr (3%/1%/96%) per capita: 560 cu m/yr (2000) | total: 0.43 cu km/yr (5%/1%/94%) per capita: 199 cu m/yr (2000 | total: 549.76 cu km/yr (7%/26%/68%) per capita: 415 cu m/yr (2000) | total: 645.84 cu km/yr (8%/5%/86%) per capita: 585 cu m/yr (2000) | total: 169.39 cu km/yr (2%/2%/96%) per capita: 1,072 cu m/yr (2000) | total: 10.18 cu km/yr (3%/1%/96%) per capita: 375 cu m/yr (2000) | |
Population (July 2011 est.) | 158,570,535 | 708,427 | 1,336,718,015 | 1,189,172,906 | 187,342,721 | 29,391,883 |
Population growth rate (2011 est) | 1.566% | 1.201% | 0.493% | N/A | 1.573% | 1.596% |
Pop. Below poverty line | 40% (2010 est) | 23.2% (2008) | 2.8% (2007) | 25% (2007 est) | 24% (FY05/06 est.) | 24.7% (2008) |
Labour force: | Agriculture: 45% Industry: 30% Service: 25% (2008) | Agriculture 43.7% Industry: 39.1% services: 17.2% (2004 est.) | Agriculture: 38.1% Industry: 27.8% Services: 34.1% (2008 est.) | Agriculture: 52% | Agriculture: 43% Industry: 20.3% Services: 36.6% (2005 est.) | Agriculture: 75% Industry: 7% Services: 18% (2010 est.) |
Improved drinking water source (% of population) (200*) | urban: 85% rural: 78% total: 80% | urban: 99% rural: 88% total: 92% | urban: 98% rural: 82% total: 89% | urban: 96% rural: 84% total: 88% | urban: 95% rural: 87% total: 90% | urban: 93% rural: 87% total: 88% |
Unimproved drinking water source (% of population) (2008) | urban: 15% rural: 22% total: 20% | urban: 1% rural: 12% total: 8% | urban: 2% rural: 18% total: 11% | urban: 4% rural: 16% total: 12% | urban: 5% rural: 13% total: 10% | urban: 7% rural: 13% total: 12% |
GDP amount per sector(2010 est.) | Agriculture: 18.6% Industry: 28.5% Services: 53% | Agriculture: 17.4% Industry: 45% Services: 37.6% | Agriculture: 10.2% Industry: 46.9% Services: 43% | Agriculture: 19% Industry: 26.3% Services: 54.7% | Agriculture: 21.2% Industry: 25.4% Services: 53.4% | Agriculture: 32.8% Industry: 14.4% Services: 52.8% |
Environment current issues | 1) Many people landless, forced to live on flood-prone land 2) Water pollution and groundwater contaminated 3) Intermittent water shortages 4) Overpopulation: (most of population on deltas of large rivers flowing from the Himalayas: the Ganges, Jamuna and Brahmaputra) | 1) Soil erosion 2) Limited access to potable water 3)Landlocked; | 1) Water shortages (esp. in North). 2) Water pollution from untreated wastes 3) Estimated one-fifth of agricultural land lost since 1949 to soil erosion and economic development 4) Desertification | 1) Soil erosion 2) Overgrazing 3) Desertification 4) Water pollution (Raw sewage, Agricultural runoff) 5) Tap water is not potable throughout the country 6) Huge and growing population is overstraining natural resources | 1) Water pollution (Raw sewage, industrial wastes, and agricultural runoff) 2) Limited natural freshwater resources. 3) Most of the population does not have access to potable water 4) Soil erosion 5) Desertification | 1) Landlocked 2) Contaminated water (human and animal wastes, agricultural runoff, and industrial effluents); |
Saturday 26 November 2011
A shift in direction
This blog has outlined some of the major climate-related changes to glaciers in the Himalayas. The IPCC (2001) have estimated that a 1° C rise in temperature has caused alpine glaciers worldwide to decrease by as much as 40% in area, and in some cases over 50% in volume compared to their 1850 estimates. However, as this blog has demonstrated, a glaciers response to climate change is highly individualistic with significant regional variations present within the same mountain chain. This is evident in the observed advances of glaciers in the Karakoram Himalaya whilst other glaciers in adjacent regions have been in a general state of retreat since the 1950s (Space Applications Centre, 2010). Therefore the IPCC (2001) prediction for a 3.5-5.5°C rise in temperature by 2100 for the Indian sub-continent (under the business-as-usual scenario) is likely to cause differential responses depending on the dominance and interaction of feedbacks in each particular region. A recent study by Lal (2002) has also contributed to the widely accepted view that temperature rises may be even greater in high altitude areas, and is an important factor to consider in attempts to model future glacial changes.
This blog has previously focussed on how glaciers within the Himalayas have adjusted to changes in the global and regional climate. However, another important aspect that needs to be considered is the potential socio-economic costs that these changes could have on communities in the valleys and lowlands surrounding the Himalayas. Many studies have highlighted the importance of glacial discharge as a source of freshwater, with rivers sourced from the mountains, such as the Ganges supporting 10% of the population in that region alone (IPCC, 2007). Thus, changes in the distribution and extent of the glaciers are anticipated to have significant impacts on the local communities in both the short- and long term. Moving away from how glaciers in the Himalayas have responded to climate change, this blog will now review some of the socio-economic costs of changes to these ice giants.
Reference:
IPCC (2001) ‘Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis’, in J.T Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Drai, K. Maskell and C.A. Johnson (Eds) Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
IPCC (2007) ‘Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’, in M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (Eds) Contributions of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
Lal, M. (2002) Possible Impacts of Global Climate Change on Water Availability in India, Report to Global Environment and Energy in the 21st Century, Indian Institute of Technology: New Delhi.
Sunday 20 November 2011
'The Belly of the Earth'??
As I was having a browse in the 'Changing Himalayas' series on the Guardian website, I came across the work of Stephaine Spray, a PhD student from Harvard. Entitled 'Wind Horse', Spray (2011) has recorded the sounds produced by a glacier, and refers to it as the 'groaning belly of the earth' (Guardian, 2011). I'm not quite sure what belly she has been listening to, I'd describe it more as a bubbling brook. but is worth a listen if you get a spare moment. You never know, one day it could be on one of those 'relaxing sounds' CD's you find in gardening shops, though I think they would have to dub out the breathing over the top.
Click here.
Click here.
In the news this week...
COMPLETED INVENTORY OF THE CURRENT AND FUTURE STATE OF HIMALAYAN AND KARAKORAM GLACIERS
A journal published in Annals of Glaciology this week provides a complete glacier inventory for all of the recorded Himalayan and Karakoram glaciers in Asia. Inventories were merged from China, India and Nepal and contain a record for 20,812 glaciers covering 43,178km2.
Cogley (2011) shows that the extent of ice in Karakoram is less than in the Himalayas, however on average Karakoram glaciers are estimated to be twice as thick (160m against 80m). On a temporal time scale, the inventory suggests that almost one-fifth of the glaciers present in 1985 have already disappeared and it is predicted a further 3,000 to 13,000 glaciers (equivalent to over 50% of the total mass) may disappear by 2035 based on the retreat rate of 1975-2008. However, it is suggested that the rate of retreat has increased in recent years, indicating that a larger percentage of glaciers could be lost by 2035.
However, it is important to note that the inventory does not account for local forcing factors such as debris cover (that can act to insolate the glacier and decrease the rate of glacial retreat (see Scherler et al., 2011) and other feedbacks related to the elevation. This inventory provides a highly useful resource for glaciologists and scientists studying in the Asian mountains. From this baseline, further research will help to build on the current findings of this article to improve understanding of different regional responses to climate change and also to inform policies to mitigate against future glacial retreat.
Reference:
Cogley, J. G (2011) ' Present and future changes in Himalaya and Karakoram glaciers', Annuals of Glaciology, 52: 59: 69-73.
Scherler, D., B. Bookhagen and M. R. Stecker (2011) 'Spatially variable response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change affected by debris cover', Nature Geoscience, 4,3: 156-159
EXAMPLES OF CURRENT MONITORING TECHNIQUES AT MENDENHALL GLACIER, ALASKA.
Cogley (2011) shows that the extent of ice in Karakoram is less than in the Himalayas, however on average Karakoram glaciers are estimated to be twice as thick (160m against 80m). On a temporal time scale, the inventory suggests that almost one-fifth of the glaciers present in 1985 have already disappeared and it is predicted a further 3,000 to 13,000 glaciers (equivalent to over 50% of the total mass) may disappear by 2035 based on the retreat rate of 1975-2008. However, it is suggested that the rate of retreat has increased in recent years, indicating that a larger percentage of glaciers could be lost by 2035.
However, it is important to note that the inventory does not account for local forcing factors such as debris cover (that can act to insolate the glacier and decrease the rate of glacial retreat (see Scherler et al., 2011) and other feedbacks related to the elevation. This inventory provides a highly useful resource for glaciologists and scientists studying in the Asian mountains. From this baseline, further research will help to build on the current findings of this article to improve understanding of different regional responses to climate change and also to inform policies to mitigate against future glacial retreat.
Reference:
Cogley, J. G (2011) ' Present and future changes in Himalaya and Karakoram glaciers', Annuals of Glaciology, 52: 59: 69-73.
Scherler, D., B. Bookhagen and M. R. Stecker (2011) 'Spatially variable response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change affected by debris cover', Nature Geoscience, 4,3: 156-159
EXAMPLES OF CURRENT MONITORING TECHNIQUES AT MENDENHALL GLACIER, ALASKA.
A new Youtube video has been uploaded this week that demonstrates some of the current methods used to monitor glacial retreat and flow in alpine environments. The video, created by the University of Alaska demonstrates the use of wire markers to monitor the thinning of the glacier at different points along its profile and also to track the movement of the Mendenhall Glacier, in Alaska in the spring and summer months. In the spring, wire markers are inserted into the ice using steam drilling. The length of the each wire marker is measured in the spring and summer months, and the difference between the values is used to estimate the amount of thinning at location. The position of each marker is also monitored using GPS, and shifts in the position of each marker are assumed to be equivalent to the rate of downvalley glacial flow. Findings suggest that the thickest part of the glacier (usually in the middle section of a glacier) flows the fastest. Thus researchers from the University of Alaska predict rates of glacial flow will decrease as glaciers continue to thin in the future.
CHINA PUBLISH THEIR SECOND NATIONAL ASSESSMENT REPORT ON CLIMATE CHANGE
China’s Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change was published on 17th November 2011. The work carried out by Ministry of Science and Technology, the China Meteorological Administration and the Chinese Academy of Sciences concluded that temperature had increased by 1.38° C from 1951 to 2009, with a rise in temperature contributing to a 10% decrease in China’s glaciers over the last century.
Unfortunately, I could not find the published report online, but I did find an earlier report published in 2007 entitled ‘China’s National Climate Change Programme’ that outlines current trends of climate change in China and steps the country is taking to mitigate against these changes.
China’s Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change was published on 17th November 2011. The work carried out by Ministry of Science and Technology, the China Meteorological Administration and the Chinese Academy of Sciences concluded that temperature had increased by 1.38° C from 1951 to 2009, with a rise in temperature contributing to a 10% decrease in China’s glaciers over the last century.
Unfortunately, I could not find the published report online, but I did find an earlier report published in 2007 entitled ‘China’s National Climate Change Programme’ that outlines current trends of climate change in China and steps the country is taking to mitigate against these changes.
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